Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election, two Israeli sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Israel and Iran have been engaged in an escalating tit-for-tat for weeks. Carrying the attack out through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and not directly from Iranian territory could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.

Driving the news: The sources said Israeli intelligence suggests the attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.

• Iran could quickly put its preparations into action if Tehran decides to strike soon, but the U.S. doesn’t know if that decision has been made, a U.S. official told Axios.

What they’re saying: Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami said on Thursday that Israel made a mistake when it attacked Iran last week and stressed that Iran’s response will be “different from any scenario” Israel might expect.

• A high-ranking Iranian source told CNN that Iran is planning a “definitive and painful” response that will likely come before the election, the network reported Wednesday.
• Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, chief of staff to Iran’s supreme leader, told TV network al-Mayadeen on Thursday Iranian retaliation was “certain.” He said the Iranian response will be “strong” and will “make our enemy regret” its attack.

Flashback: Israel openly attacked Iran for the first time ever last week, targeting Iranian military infrastructure and air defense systems — though not nuclear sites or oil fields — in multiple waves of airstrikes.

• Iran claimed to have defeated that attack with only “limited damage,” but vowed retaliation.
• Israel’s attack came in response to Iran’s 180-missile attack against Israel three weeks earlier, which Israel’s air defenses mostly repelled

Read more on original:

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/31/israel-iran-planning-attack-iraq