Iran wants to hit Israel while avoiding retaliation from Washington, US assesses

Politico -April 11th, 2024

By LARA SELIGMAN, ALEXANDER WARD and NAHAL TOOSI

Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses.

Biden administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days, one that will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, said two U.S. officials who were granted anonymity to detail sensitive discussions.

Neither official said they were fully confident Iran will succeed in striking Israel in a way that doesn’t prompt the U.S. to respond militarily, as any attack increases the risk of a greater conflagration in the Middle East. But Iran doesn’t seek to expand the regional crisis further, the Biden administration has long determined, which the officials said may be weighing on Tehran’s planning.

The National Security Council declined to comment. But President Joe Biden, speaking during a Wednesday news conference, said Iran was “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel.”

“Our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” Biden continued while alongside Japan’s prime minister. “We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”

Iranian leaders have explicitly warned in recent days that the country would react forcefully to the deadly April 1 attack on a diplomatic facility in Damascus. Iran’s supreme leader said Israel “must and shall be punished.”

“When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday. “The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and it shall be.”

The Biden administration expects Iran’s response in the coming days — as early as this weekend, according to one of the U.S. officials. “We’re still in that window” for an Iranian response, said the second official. But Iran is “looking to calibrate it, so they essentially don’t overplay their hand.”

The U.S. is sending direct messages to Iran through established channels, the first U.S. official said, mainly to ensure whatever attack comes doesn’t spike tensions in the Middle East.