The Axis of Resistance Keeps Getting Smaller

The Atlantic-Feb 25th2025

By Arash Azizi

The Iranian regime spent decades building the Axis of Resistance, a coalition of anti-Western militias that extended Tehran’s influence deep into the Arab world. But what takes years to build can collapse seemingly overnight. Iraq is the latest country in which many leaders are attempting to move out of Iran’s orbit.

Last year, the Axis rapidly slid from the seeming height of its power into terminal decline. Israel battered two key members, Hamas and Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell to its opponents. In Lebanon, the Parliament elected a new president and a new prime minister who are not on friendly terms with the Axis. Until recently, Tehran liked to boast that it controlled four Arab capitals: Damascus, Beirut, Sanaa, and Baghdad. The first two have slipped away. The third is still controlled by the Houthis, who remain loyal to Tehran. But what about the fourth?

Iran’s influence in Baghdad runs through the country’s Shiite militias and political parties. Iraq’s prime minister can hardly govern without the support of Shiite groups. And yet, the degree of Tehran’s control over Baghdad isalways changing. Pro-Tehran parties can’t form a government on their own; they have to form coalitions with other parties, including those dominated by Kurds and Sunnis, who have little ideological affinity with the Axis. And even among Iraq’s Shia, the pro-Tehran position is heavily contested—all the more so, surely, now that the region’s balance of power has shifted away from Iran.

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https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/02/iraq-leaving-irans-axis/681825/