Trump promised a short Iran war. Six months later, he has few good options.

Washington post-Aug28th2026

The day after President Donald Trump launched the war in Iran on Feb. 28, he said the fight could last four to five weeks. Six months later, there is little to suggest the end is near.

The Iran war has become a major challenge to Trump’s second term, hurting his standing with voters at home and eroding the U.S. position in the Middle East. And the president’s ability to shape the outcome appears to be severely constrained after Iranian leaders discovered that they could withstand intense bombardment and slowly degrade the world’s most powerful military with a cheap combination of mines and drones.

Now Trump needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while operating within his own red lines: His fierce aversion to becoming a 21^st-century Herbert Hoover, who presided over the Great Depression, limits the economic moves available to him. His decision, at least so far, to hold back from the riskiest and most extreme military moves against Iran similarly limits his war options.

“We are in an absolutely weaker position, and I don’t know that there’s any redemption for it,” said Suzanne Maloney, an expert on U.S.-Iran relations at the Brookings Institution. The war “is part of a larger set of dynamics that have been unleashed by this administration that have eroded U.S. credibility and capabilities in the Middle East, but also with respect to other adversaries in other theaters.”

Trump boasted Thursday of the soaring stock market and said that Tehran was suffering from a U.S. naval blockade and a tightening sanctions campaign, both of which have put pressure on its economy.

He downplayed the war’s impact on the flow of oil through the strait, which before Feb. 28 carried more than a fifth of global supplies.

“Iran is right now, they’re not paying their troops. They’re in deep trouble,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office as he signed an order that directed U.S. government agencies to change the name they use for Lake Ontario to Lake America.

“They have very little capacity. Last night, we took 24 boats through the strait. We’re taking them through all the time,” he said. “It doesn’t mean we’re finished with the military, but we are, the strait is open.”

More than 100 ships traversed the Strait of Hormuz on average every day before the war. Just five went through on one day this week, according to Kpler, a commodities and shipping tracker. U.S. officials say the true number is higher because some ships have been turning off their transponders to avoid getting hit by Iran, but oil supplies have remained tight and prices have stayed well above pre-war levels.

The president and his allies say they have dealt a historic blow to Iran’s military and its ability to construct a nuclear weapon. They point to the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the intense first phase of the war that destroyed much of Iran’s armed forces.