U.S. wrestles with Russian, Iranian provocations in the Middle East

U.S. wrestles with Russian, Iranian provocations in the Middle East

Washington Post- July 2nd 2022

By Karoun Demirjian

AL-TANF GARRISON, Syria — A burst of Russian and Iranian maneuvers against U.S. interests in the Middle East has forced the region’s new military commander toward an early reckoning over how to reestablish deterrence without sparking a wider conflict, a perennial problem that has taken on new urgency amid the global instability ignited by Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Army Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, who took charge of U.S. Central Command this spring, met in late June with dozens of the approximately 300 soldiers, Special Operations forces and foreign trainees stationed at this sprawling base in eastern Syria. The high-level visit occurred just days after Russian fighter jets attacked a combat post operated by Syrian opposition fighters inside the garrison. Russian military officials, citing a purported vehicle explosion they claimed had wounded Syrian government troops, notified the Americans of their intent 35 minutes prior, according to a U.S. military official.

The Biden administration is presiding over a unique moment, as familiar threats like those posed by Iran and its proxies have, in ways, been overshadowed by Russia’s aggressive posture toward Europe and China’s quest for regional dominance in the Pacific. As the U.S. government looks to reprioritize, key Middle Eastern allies — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel — are growing impatient, acutely aware that Washington’s attention and war capital are being drawn elsewhere.

It has given new urgency to a classic strategic challenge: How much harassment is the United States willing to tolerate, and how can it deter adversaries from testing Washington’s red lines?

“The biggest question U.S. policymakers have to wrestle with is that at some point, the Emiratis, Saudis, Israelis, and other Middle Eastern allies, if they don’t believe that the United States is going to deter Iran on its own, they’ll be looking for ways to deter Iran by themselves,” said Raphael S. Cohen, who researches military strategy and doctrine at the RAND Corporation.

Ukraine has widened the breach between U.S. and Persian Gulf countries

No U.S. personnel were harmed in the Russian strike on Tanf. But that was little solace to Kurilla, who characterized the incident as part of a wider attempt by U.S. adversaries to assert dominance in the region while betting that the United States will not mount a kinetic response.